Which is where the ECW homecoming idea comes in. For once, it actually is more or less wide open as to who might win this. The four guys from RAW or Smackdown are over enough that they could easily come back to ECW and rule the roost - those being Matt Hardy, Evan Bourne, Kane and CM Punk. The four guys from ECW's roster are viable too - Shelton seems like a company guy with charisma to spare, and is bound to end up with the belt eventually. Yoshi Tatsu looks to be on the underdog path where every win seems like an improbable upset. Vance Archer is in the middle of a massive push to get him quickly introduced and over as a silent heel, so a title match would help that, win or lose. And Jackson, though the least likely of the bunch to pull off a win, just got out of the pair of cronies angle with Kozlov, meaning he's ready to move to something more significant, but I don't think he wins here because they want to stretch out his issue with Kozlov.
Onto segments:
Christian and Punk's opening was pretty good. Punk has settled into his heel role very well, and he can berate a crowd with the best of them. All Christian has to do is smirk and defend the crowd a little bit to make the segment work, because Punk is still a step away from being a threat. The problem with Christian's current position in ECW is that there's a dearth of people who can play this antagonistic role for him. Regal can and has, but they can't keep going back to that well. Punk would do it well, but in order for it to make sense, he'd need to win the title, and if that happens I can't see them dropping Christian back into chasing the ECW belt. It would just lead to more of the same, and it's just about time for Christian to move onto another brand.
Shelton and Chavo put on a good-to-great match. Say what you want about Chavo, but there's a reason the guy has been hanging around in the WWE for almost ten years: dude's very good at what he does. He's another one who has that Evan Bourne-like position of being a name brand jobber: I don't see it likely that Chavo will ever hold another WWE title, but he'll always hang around, because he'll always put on a good show, and always be able to sit on the fringes of contention. These two guys put on a great match, with good spots for both, and Shelton goes over Chavo as he needs to if there's any intention of putting the ECW on Shelton at any point. The homecoming idea is sort of a testing ground for future champions, I think, and Shelton ought to be on that list.
Zack Ryder ripping on Dreamer's departure will likely and hopefully be the last reference made to Dreamer on ECW. Since he's likely to end up in TNA within three months, they'll want to sever the connection, and Ryder needs to move onto someone else pretty quickly if the bump he gets from retiring Dreamer is to be worthwhile.
Kozlov vs. Jackson was typical of every encounter they've had... that's to say it was kind of boring. Jackson's got appreciable intensity, but in order to make use of it he needs to be in the ring with smaller guys he can throw around more than Kozlov. Hopefully this feud wraps up soon and they both move onto something else.
Punk vs. Mark Henry was good. The cheap shot ending furthered Punk's heel momentum and might have made Luke Gallows matter for the first time. There's no way Punk was going to be able to beat Henry without some outside involvement, and Punk brings more to the battle royal next week than Henry would. There's already two monsters in the match (Jackson and Kane), so Mark Henry would be redundant. Besides, face big men aren't quite as effective in an over-the-top-rope situation. There's no upside to having a bunch of heels team up on them. Jackson as a heel and Kane as a tweener are more useful.
So what happens next week? Everything I've read says Punk wins the title shot, which has its ups and downs. Punk's role on Smackdown isn't quite clear right now - he's not really in the title hunt, and you can bet he'll be dropping all the references to Jeff Hardy he's been using to get heat since Hardy showed up on Impact. A move back to ECW as a heel champion might not be a bad thing, but you have to wonder where it leaves Christian. For the amount of time they've dedicated to the ECW Homecoming angle, whoever wins the title shot sort of HAS to win the title at Royal Rumble. A month of build just to have Christian win and reassert his dominance on the brand (something that isn't really in doubt) doesn't do them a lot of good. If he does lose the title, I don't think it makes a ton of sense for him to drop back into a title-chasing role, since he's been the top of ECW for so long, and there's really no one else on the roster that would make a proper new feud for him.
I think we'll see Punk win the title shot, and then maybe get into a short in-and-out program with Christian through Wrestlemania. I'd like to see it end with either Shelton or Yoshi involved (as they're more representative of ECW than Punk is), get Christian away from the belt for good at Wrestlemania, and have it end up with one of the two of them. If Edge is ready for action by Wrestlemania, have Christian interfere one way or another to kick off an Edge/Christian program, either as friends or enemies. If Edge isn't going to be ready, get the ECW title off Christian by No Way Out, and have him step in as Edge's defender if Jericho has been setting the table for a Jericho/Edge match, and let Christian take his place. Either using that or the draft, get Christian to Smackdown to work with Edge and Jericho, and then you could move him into some other interesting program there as well - Mysterio, John Morrison, or put Christian into the IC title hunt.
He's done ECW worlds of good, but now he's languishing, and so long as he's on the top of the card over there, none of the young guys they so desperately need will step up as they should. Look at Sheamus or Evan Bourne: a jump from ECW to another brand isn't terribly effective if you leave without getting a chance at the title. Mark Henry, Matt Hardy, Jack Swagger (prior to his faltering on RAW), Morrison (and Miz by connection), CM Punk - they've all done much better for themselves after being involved with the ECW title for a time. No one else gets that shot until Christian is onto another brand. Time to send him onto bigger and better things.
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